2013 Governor’s Cup Preview: No. 7 Louisville @ Kentucky

Well Kentucky sports fans, the biggest football game in the commonwealth each year is finally upon us.  While the basketball bragging rights resolutely rests with the Cardinals in the River City, the pigskin bragging rights will be up for grabs on Saturday in Lexington at Commonwealth Stadium at noon.

Louisville (2-0, 0-0 AAC) is off to a predictable start in the 2013-14 season.  The Cardinals are competing in their first and last season with the American Athletic Conference, a collection of former Big East and Conference USA schools which will receive an automatic bid to a BCS bowl in this the last year of the non-playoff format.  Louisville is expected to win the conference and many expect an appearance in the Sugar Bowl with an outside chance of making the national title game.

Behind Heisman Trophy candidate Teddy Bridgewater, head coach Charlie Strong’s offense has shown to be a prolific one.  Bridgewater has completed passes to at least eight receivers in each of the first two games this season against Ohio and Eastern Kentucky.  The likes of DeVante Parker and Damian Copeland will look to continue the momentum Louisville has gained since finishing last season with a resounding victory over Florida in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.

The question for Louisville concerns the up and down running game.  With a couple players coming off preseason injuries and the offensive coordinators fitting Michael Dyer into its schemes, it will be interesting to see what the Cardinals’ rushing game can accomplish in Lexington against the Wildcats.

Louisville’s passing attack is among the best in the nation, raking in over 400 yards per game (ranked 4th).  The Cardinals are allowing only seven points for opposing offenses (ranked 9th) and are averaging over 46 points contest (ranked 14th).  The blemish so far for this Top-10 squad: 138 rushing yards per game (ranked 81st).

Kentucky (1-1, 0-0 SEC) righted its ship after losing to in-state foe Western Kentucky by smearing the RedHawks of Miami University of Ohio, 41-7.  The Cats showcased what many fans were itching to see – Neal Brown’s air-raid offense.  Mark Stoops’ troops are currently ranked 26th in the nation in passing yards with an average of 308 per game.

The Wildcats are racking up nearly 240 yards on the ground thus far (ranked 32nd), scoring over 33 points per game (ranked 54th) and are allowing 21 points per outing (ranked 46th).  These numbers are improvements from recent years and are no doubt welcomed by Big Blue Nation.

Stoops promised a different level of play when he accepted the job, and we may well be seeing the change.  For Kentucky to make some serious strides toward gaining positioning in the powerful Southeastern Conference, the coaching staff will need to find ways to consistently convert on third down and develop touted recruits into reliable program representatives.  Unlike the limited reliability of its basketball recruits, Wildcat Football (by way of NCAA rules) actually has real opportunity to keep players and develop them over time.  This, along with continuing to attract the gravy train of top-notch recruits, is key for Kentucky in its quest for an SEC identity.

Louisville hopes to extend its streak of wins over Kentucky to three and will more than likely pursue a respectful victory – Coach Strong has pulled Bridgewater out of the first two games after the third quarter when it appeared the Cardinals were sure to win the contests.  Georgia native and freshman Will Gardner took over the offense in both games and closed out the games.

I don’t believe we will see any nose-rubbing by Coach Strong like we saw with Bobby Petrino (i.e. punching in another score late in the fourth quarter in an obvious UofL win), but I do predict we shall see no signs of letting up by the Cardinal offense.  Kentucky may have its moments, but all signs point to a resounding Louisville victory in this year’s edition of the battle for the Governor’s Cup.

Prediction: Louisville 35, Kentucky 17